Paths to Peace: When do Elections Contribute to Sustainable Peace Agreements?

Under what conditions do electoral processes contribute to peace and democracy in transition settings? Based on a new database of elections in post-conflict settings, the proposed paper identifies the conditions under which elections conducted in transition settings fulfill their potential as tools of conflict-management. The paper tests three categories of variables to identify those configurations that are either necessary or sufficient for elections to fulfill their conflict-management potential. We argue that for elections to fulfill their conflict-management potential, they must contribute to 1) horizontal peacebuilding (the management of differences between leaders) and to 2) vertical peacebuilding (rebuilding the link between citizens and the state). Their success is influenced by three notable factors: the electoral system, the existence of supportive institutions and the security environment. This paper is part of a larger project intended to provide evidence-based systematic comparative analysis of the use of elections as a tool of conflict-management.