Are coup attempts more likely during an economic crisis? While older studies argued that economic performance does matter, recent studies almost entirely come out against the argument. I address this disparity by exploring the moderating effect of the Cold War period. During the Cold War, almost all national governments around the world received economic support from either the US or the USSR. These aid-receiving regimes, therefore, were able to provide benefits for their ruling coalitions even during periods of economic crisis. After the Cold War, however, the direct political interference by the superpowers was drastically reduced and economically ill-performing leaders suddenly risked coup attempts. By employing the Powell and Thyne coup-dataset for 150 countries in 1952–2005, distinguishing between the Cold War/Post-Cold War period, using alliance data from COW and the ATOP project, and more, I present empirical evidence for a robust conditional effect of economic growth on coup attempts.
