The Frustrated Floating Voter Hypothesis Revisited. Did Political Dissatisfaction lead to Indecisiveness and Instability in Party Preferences during the 2009 and 2014 Belgian Elections Campaigns?

This paper will investigate whether political dissatisfaction increases voters’ indecisiveness as well as instability of party preferences during a campaign. Focussing on the 2009 and 2014 Belgian elections campaigns, our study aims to examine the influence of political disaffection on four distinct dimensions of party dealignment, namely wavering, late decision making, split-ticket voting and electoral volatility. We will test the frustrated floating voter hypothesis (Zelle, 1995) according to which changes in voters’ party preferences can be largely attributed to political dissatisfaction. We will also include in our models a wide range of control variables such as socio-demographic characteristics, political sophistication, ideological orientations and campaign-related factors. This paper should bring some insights in the theoretical debate on the causes of uncertainty and instability in citizens’ party preferences. Our analysis will draw on panel data from the 2009 and 2014 PartiRep Belgian Voter Surveys.