This paper aims to understand how a range of programme and external factors influence the outcome of the Bolsa Familia (BF) Programme such as: the capacity of municipalities; the supply of services; the integration of services; geography; political motivations; levels of poverty; and urban versus rural context. It looks at two key outcomes: the quality of implementation of the programme linked to the demand for services; and the quality of implementation linked to the supply of services. By taking data from federal Brazilian datasets related to these factors and administrative data on the quality of implementation from the BF programme, this paper models associations between the key variables. The results allow us to see what programme and external factors matter in the demand for and supply of services in BF and of course understand the differences between factors influencing supply and demand. This would shine further light on the 'black box' of implementation and contribute to emerging knowledge on how to design better conditional cash transfer programmes.
