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Springs and Their Offspring: The International Consequences of Domestic Uprisings

Cleavages
Conflict
Contentious Politics
Democratisation
International Relations
Islam
Security
Social Movements
John Owen
University of Virginia
John Owen
University of Virginia

Abstract

A political “Spring” is a coordinated effort, successful at least in the short-term, at liberation from oppressive rule, as in Prague in 1968 or many Arab countries since late 2010. Many political springs have been swiftly followed by clusters of other events in neighboring states such as civic unrest, increased state repression and attempts at co-option of dissent, revolution, intensification of international rivalries, and foreign intervention both overt and covert. Such took place following a Scottish Spring in 1560 and a Paris Spring in 1830. I suggest the relations among these events are causal, and that the mechanism entails (1) pre-existing transnational networks and (2) group polarization triggered by symbolic events such as self-immolations and demonstrations. These mechanisms help explain how the Tunisian Spring of late 2010 / early 2011 became the Arab Spring and has produced the types of international offspring it has. I conclude with questions for further research.