Democratic elections produce winning and losing voters, depending on which parties get into office. Belonging to either of these teams has consequences for the voters’ legitimacy beliefs and political behaviour (see Anderson et al. 2005; Esaiasson 2011; Singh et al. 2012). Winners and losers differ systematically in their legitimacy beliefs. But how do these beliefs change over time, when winners may become losers and vice versa?
This paper tests the short- and medium-term effects of winning and losing on legitimacy beliefs on a detailed level. Specifically, it analyses citizens’ attitudes, behaviour and the political context simultaneously over a longer period of time. This way, electoral outcomes are not only considered as single, exogenous events that impact citizens’ legitimacy beliefs. Rather, the paper studies the dynamics between democratic demand and supply, as well as the consequences of this dynamic over the course of time.
The paper employs seven waves of panel data from the Netherlands between 2006-2013 – a period during which three parliamentary elections (2006, 2010, 2012) were held. The Netherlands provides and ideal testing ground with its particularly low threshold, large number of parties and turbulent political and economic times as of late. These conditions allow considering each of the parliamentary elections as an occasion for random assignments into a group of electoral winners and losers. The paper studies groups of repeated losers, repeated winners and a mix of both as to their legitimacy beliefs over the course of seven years when political supply was changing quickly.
