The Assumption of Adult Roles and Voter Turnout: A Curvilinear Relationship?

According to the life-cycle theory of political participation, experiencing life events that mark the transition to adulthood increases the likelihood of turning out to vote in elections. As e.g. employees, homeowners, spouses, and parents, adults have a higher stake in the outcome of elections. Despite the fact that many characteristics of adult life are indeed positively related to turnout, Highton and Wolfinger (2001) find that leaving school and marriage are at first associated with a decline in individual level turnout. In other words, the passage to adult life may first disrupt patterns of political participation before increasing the probability of turnout in the longer term. Making use of the British Household Panel Survey (BHPS), this paper aims to study the relationship between the assumption of adult roles and voter turnout more closely. Panel data such as the BHPS allow estimating the curvilinear relationship between the transition to adult life and voter turnout through non-linear techniques such as growth curve models. The results of this paper will allow us to understand age effects on voter turnout with more precision.