The EU's unstable leadership constellation: From bipolarity to variable geometry and German part-time hegemony

A major factor of the EU's legitimacy problem lies in the setup of its internal leadership constellation, which in the course of the past decade gradually shifted from the bipolar Franco-German axis towards a new variable geometry of short-term,issue-related working partnerships. The once dominant Franco-German couple has been substantially weakened in its ability to determine the EU policy agenda. This is the result the greater divergence in the two countries' European policy preferences, combined with the loss of influence in the enlarging EU. The focus consequently gradually shifted towards flexible working partnership between the group of larger member states (France, Germany, the UK, Italy, Spain and more recently Poland). None of these working partnerships has developed into a lasting leadership constellation for the larger EU-28. The ambition of Tony Blair's New Labour government's in the UK in the late 1990s to join France and Germany with the purpose of creating a new leadership triangle eventually failed as a result of the increasing divergence of the three countries' European policy preferences. This paper examines future leadership options for the EU under the current conditions where Germany has moved into the position of a 'reluctant hegemon' (W. Paterson 2011) that increasingly exercises leadership on a part-time basis. With the UK under Cameron moving having moved towards an isolated position in the EU and both Italy and Spain fundamentally weakened by their economic troubles, the future leadership initiatives were most likely to come from the Weimar Triangle which combines Germany, France and Poland. These three countries had in recent years intensified their cooperation, most of all on the EU's external affairs. They could potentially have become the new agenda-setters in the EU if they were able to maintain their cooperative momentum. The future of this cooperation is doubtful given France's weak economic position and the return of the eurosceptic Law and Justice Party to government in Poland. Without a broader leadership constellation the EU is unlikely to tackle the mounting internal and external crises and to make progress towards reducing the lack of input legitimacy as well as the declining output legitimacy of its policies.