In this paper we discuss an emerging group of successful new parties in Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) which combine strongly anti-establishment appeals and demands for political reform with otherwise liberal or centrist stances on social and economic issues. We term such parties anti-establishment reform parties (AERPs). Instances include the Simeon II National Movement (Bulgaria), Res Publica (Estonia), New Era (Latvia), Public Affairs (Czech Republic), Palikot Movement (Poland), Ordinary People (Slovakia), Positive Slovenia and the Zatlers Reform Party (Latvia).
In this paper we discuss the extent to which such parties represent a distinct new phenomenon and explain our concept of the anti-establishment reform party (AERPs) carry out a comparative analysis using Fuzzy Set Qualitative Comparative Analysis (fsQCA) technique to identify the conditions under which such parties made electoral breakthroughs in the period 1998-2012. Drawing on literatures on new and outsider parties and initial findings in earlier work, we operationalise and test causal conditions: low but rising corruption, rising unemployment, previous success of new parties, increasing turnout, and strength of ideologically radical parties of far-right and far-left. We present a series of causal paths (configurations of causes) identified though fsQCA and discuss them with reference to evidence from key cases. We then conclude by reflecting upon the strengths and limitations of (our application of) QCA and consider the extent to which it might be extended to West European cases.
