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Public Support for TTIP in EU Countries: The Origins of Trade Policy Preferences in a Salient Real-World Case

European Politics
European Union
Political Economy
USA
Political Sociology
Investment
Quantitative
Trade
Nils Steiner
Johannes Gutenberg-Universität Mainz
Nils Steiner
Johannes Gutenberg-Universität Mainz

Abstract

There is by now a rather developed literature on the determinants of individual-level preferences over international economic integration. Yet attitudes towards international economic integration are usually measured through survey questions on abstract preferences in contexts where policies on international economic integration are arguably of rather low salience in the public mind. The ongoing controversy accompanying the negotiations over the Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership (TTIP) presents an opportunity to re-examine the determinants of individual-level preferences over international economic integration on a specific real-world case of relatively high salience. In this paper, I draw on a recent Eurobarometer survey (EB 83.3) conducted in the 28 EU member states in May 2015 to explore the determinants of individual preferences towards a free trade and investment agreement between the EU and the USA. Using hierarchical multilevel models, I find support for each of three approaches to explaining preferences over international economic integration: economic self-interest, socio-cultural attitudes towards openness and internationalization, and elite cues and general ideological orientations. Perhaps most notably, I obtain strikingly strong effects of estimated aggregate welfare gains at the country-level that, moreover, increase with the economic knowledge of an individual. In contrast to previous research on general preferences towards international economic openness in developed countries, but in line with the broad theoretical expectations from factor endowment models of international trade applied to the specific case of TTIP, the study finds no skill-level divides.