Strategic Considerations, Political Disaffection and Changes in Vote Intentions During National and Subnational Election Campaigns. A Comparative Study on Determinants of Election Campaign Volatility in Western Democracies

The present paper examines changes in vote intentions during 16 national and subnational election campaigns in 6 advanced democracies: Belgium, Canada, France, Germany, Spain and Switzerland. Using data from panel surveys conducted in the framework of the project Making Electoral Democracy Work, this study aims to explain why a large number of voters switch from one party to another during the weeks preceding the elections. Two main hypotheses are tested. First, I hypothesize that shifts in vote intentions during a campaign can be attributed to strategic considerations. Second, I test the frustrated floating voter hypothesis which holds that party switching is triggered by political disaffection. In addition, I include a wide range of control variables such as sociodemographic characteristics, party identification, ideological orientations and political sophistication. Preliminary results clearly confirm that strategic calculations may lead voters to change their vote intention during the weeks preceding the elections. Besides, citizens with a low level of trust in institutions, a low degree of satisfaction with democracy and a low level of external political efficacy are found to be more likely to switch parties in the campaign.