Contradictory Facets of the EU’s Normative Power in Armenia and Georgia

This paper examines the impact of Normative Power Europe (NPE) in Armenia and Georgia between October 2012 and December 2015. It argues that the EU’s promotion of rules, norms and values was hampered by two interrelated factors: First, domestic political developments in Armenia (presidential elections) and in Georgia (presidential and parliamentary elections) occasionally challenged the contextual dynamics of the EU’s ability to ensure the countries’ further integration into the EU’s acquis communautaire. Second, NPE is constrained by the Kremlin’s determination to keep these countries under its orbit whilst outwardly rejecting the EU’s pretensions as a normative power. Russia’s determination to maintain its influence over the former Soviet space intensified after several coloured revolutions demonstrated the elite’s and citizens’ allure to the EU’s value promotion. Consequently the Kremlin increased pressure on the countries’ respective governments to convince them to pursue integration with Russia instead of closer EU association. At first glance, these efforts seem to have paid off in the case of Armenia when President Sargsyan announced Yerevan’s accession to the Eurasian Economic Union (EEU) in September 2013 whilst terminating further EU integration efforts. In contrast, Georgia’s conclusion of an Association Agreement with the EU displayed Tbilisi’s determination to follow a reform-oriented, pro-European trajectory. Despite these developments, contradictory facets of NPE are increasingly coming to the fore: at a time when Yerevan’s accession to the EEU revealed several flaws of this integrative project, and in light of Russia’s unlawful actions in eastern Ukraine, Armenia does no longer entirely disavow the attractiveness of the NPE. Simultaneously, Georgia’s recent slowing down of approximation with EU laws and rules, the government’s growing resort to non-democratic practices and even political violence, in combination with what some observers consider a rapprochement with the Kremlin, challenge popular assumptions about Georgia’s political orientation and thus the impact of the NPE. These divergent approaches demonstrate that the effect of the NPE can be facilitated and constrained by endogenous and exogenous factors. This paper seeks to identify these factors in a comparative study of NPE in Armenia and Georgia. It seeks to demonstrate that the effect of NPE on domestic political trajectories is particularly strong in the absence of powerful (internal and external) veto-players and political elites’ disposition to resonate positively with the NPE.