The Energy Transition: Coping with Uncertainty – Local Policy Strategies for Future Urban Heat Supply in Switzerland

Uncertainty represents a recurrent topic in public policy and governance, and it has gained particular relevance in the context of sustainable development. With respect to the future orientation and complexity of sustainability issues, uncertainty is regarded as one of the main challenges of sustainability governance. This is also true in one of the most salient sustainability issues of our time: the energy transition. Governing energy systems towards more sustainable ones encounters various technological, societal and political uncertainties. In policy practice, these uncertainties are not only at issue in strategic decisions at the level of “high policy” (e.g. in national energy strategies), but also in the realm of everyday policy making and planning at the local level. How and to what effects are uncertainties in the energy system perceived and dealt with by local policy makers? Looking at urban heat supply policies in Switzerland, the proposed paper addresses this question to understand the role of uncertainties in energy transitions and the ways they are dealt with more generally. The paper’s contributions are threefold: First, it makes propositions how to analyze uncertainties related to energy transitions. Second, it provides a differentiated analytical typology of basic options for dealing with uncertainties in policy making. Third, the paper contributes empirical observations on the perception of uncertainties and policy makers’ strategies to deal with these uncertainties in three Swiss cities.