Making Public Policy: A time series analysis of Public opinion, Interest groups and Policy-making in Sweden

In the literature on policy responsiveness, the influence of public opinion and interest groups is often analyzed separately, although these two factors likely compete and interact in affecting public policy. When existing studies address both factors at the same time, either very general indicators of policy are used (Gray et al., 2004), or there is no temporal dimension in the analysis (e.g. Burstein. 2014; Gilens & Page, 2014). These limitations make it hard to gain a comprehensive assessment of the competing and possibly interacting effects of public opinion and interest group activity on the changes in policy outcomes over time. In this paper we address this gap through an analysis of the preference attainment of the public and interest groups in Sweden for the period between 1987 and 2013. The study allows us to assess whether public policy changes respond to shifts in public opinion and/or to the changing constellation of interest groups lobbying on an issue. To achieve these ends, our study combines data on public opinion, interest group activities as reflected in the media, and public policy outcomes. The public opinion data is derived from annual, representative survey data tapping the policy-related preferences of Swedish citizens. The intensity and nature of interest group activity is mapped through an analysis of claims made by organized interests and other actors (such as experts and international organizations) in two major Swedish newspapers between 1987 and 2013. We establish and track the relevant policy outcomes for the entire period of the study through an extensive analysis of government and other documents. The sample of policies includes up to twelve specific issues covering different policy areas and having different salience; for example, asylum policy, privatizing elderly care, and nuclear energy. Focusing on Sweden contributes to the existing literature by examining the interplay of public opinion and interest groups in a strongly corporatist yet democratic environment. Assessing the possible impact of public opinion and interest groups is crucial for enhancing our understanding of the democratic legitimacy of policy outcomes and the ways in which organized interests can hamper or amplify policy responsiveness to public opinion (Burstein, 2014). In sum, studying both can address the central question of political science: who gets what, when and how (Lasswell, 1950)?