Recent studies on protest campaigns suggest that higher levels of participation and the use of nonviolent tactics increase the chances for success. Accordingly, nonviolent campaigns attract the support of larger and more diverse groups of people as the barriers to participation are low. This leads to tactical innovations as protesters challenge the state in different ways, making it more difficult for the state to resort to repression. Moreover, state repression backfires, increasing support for the campaign. This study argues that high levels of participation and nonviolent tactics do not necessarily lead to a successful outcome. Instead, the actions and interactions of multiple parties determine the trajectory of the protest campaign, which may or may not lead to a successful outcome. An empirical analysis of the mechanisms and processes of the 2013 Gezi Protests in Turkey based on an original dataset from Cumhuriyet show that the Turkish state’s adaptive responses to tactical innovations prevented the protests from escalating. Consistent repression coupled with punitive actions targeting activists and their families eventually deterred the highly innovative protesters. The study also demonstrates the need to examine state responses from a dynamic perspective by breaking them down into mechanisms and processes.
