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Who Disarms? Evidence from the Somalian Civil War

Africa
Conflict
Conflict Resolution
Lilli Banholzer
Gerald Schneider
Universität Konstanz

Abstract

(Post)-war societies face the challenge of convincing combatants to disarm. In choosing to keep the gun against giving it up, individuals weight the net present value of staying armed or joining the disarmament process. This decision is influenced by a number of individual factors as well as the socio-economic environment to which the combatants are exposed to. Based on a sample of over 7000 interviews with Somali combatants originating from the 18 Somali regions, we use multilevel analysis to test three different set of factors at the individual and the regional level that we believe to explain the willingness or reluctance to disarm. We divide these into “pre-war characteristics”, “war-experiences” and “post-war features”. The analysis of the pre-war factors provides evidence that education (Koranic vs. non-religious) as well as the primary motivation to join an armed group matter for the later preparedness to disarm. On an equal footing, experiences during the war are also important: Soldiers who remained within their military unit for many years and highly traumatized individuals tend to refuse disarmament. Combatants who have been involved in active combat and exposed to life-threatening situations on the other hand seem to rather readily lay down their arms if asked to do so. Finally the present situation has an effect: While wealthy combatants are more hesitant to disarm when looked at individually, combatants living in economically stable regions tend to give up their weapon more often. Regional political instability however does not seem to play a major role.