Migrant political culture and voting behavior in Romania

The results of the first round 2014 presidential elections in Romania predicted a comfortable win for the incumbent Prime Minister Victor Ponta, the president of the Social Democratic Party. After the first round, Ponta held a 10% lead over the Christian-Liberal Alliance candidate Klaus Iohannis. Surprisingly, Klaus Iohannis, won the second round of elections. He obtained 89% of Diaspora’s votes, adding a 4% gain in front of his contender. In most studies on electoral behavior, the focus for explaining why people go to vote is centered at the level of the “country, election, electoral cohort or individual voter” (Franklin 2004). Notably absent from these studies is the impact Diaspora on the election results of the sending country. In this vein we focus on the predictors that lie behind the political participation and preferences of Romanian Diaspora. We show that Romanian diaspora consistently votes with centre right wing parties and candidates. At the same time, Romanian migrants have favourable attitudes towards minority out-groups, and towards activity and prerogatives of international organizations (EU, IMF). Our analyses are based on elections results data from 2000 to 2014 coupled with data on voting intentions and policy preferences collected from Votulmeu.com an online Voting Advice Application from the 2012 parliamentary and 2014 presidential elections in Romania.