Historical Trajectories of Territorial Authority Distribution in Decentralized Countries. A Sequence Analysis in 21 Countries

The existing evidence for the explanatory factors of asymmetric authority within countries is twofold. A number of studies have shown that asymmetry results from an interaction of structural factors such as transitions from authoritarian to democratic regimes in combination with partisan constellations. In addition, asymmetry leads to dynamics which increase the overall level of decentralization while decreasing the asymmetry over time. These catch-up dynamics have been demonstrated mostly in case studies. We argue that dynamics in asymmetrically decentralized countries are more diverse. In this paper, we study the historical developments of territorial asymmetry and the level of decentralization by applying sequential analysis. The sequential patterns reveal that catch-up dynamics can be observed in about 44% of asymmetrically decentralized democracies. A second cluster consists of those countries which increase asymmetry as well as the level of decentralization over time. The second cluster contains about 34% of the countries with asymmetric authority. In these cases identity-based regional demand for authority is more rapidly accommodated than the “equality demands” of the remaining regions. We assess the historical trajectories of these two clusters by including structural and partisan variables. We find specific partisan constellations in the early stage of democratization to shape the countries’ development on the territorial dimension with regard to asymmetry and the level of authority. It is not the mobilization of regional identity alone but national governments’ approach to accommodating these demands in a way that seeks either a balance between “ordinary” and Rokkan regions or to sustain the distinctiveness of the latter.