Authoritarian Consolidation and Political Liberalization in the MENA: The Long-Lasting Effect of Domestic Players and Regime Type

Over the last two decades increased attention has been paid to the Arab and Muslim world in regards to the lack of democracy. So far the academic debate has identified and analysed various domestic and international factors for the (absence of) democracy in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA). The Arab uprisings opened a new reality highlighting the diversity in the region. While some countries liberalized, others were either not affected at all or even strengthened the authoritarian grip of the regime. Even those countries that went through the Arab uprisings ended up differently: Tunisia is in transition, Egypt went through a full circle in which the military maintained its solid grip on the regime, Libya and Syria are still in conflict. The only country that seems to be on right track with respect to democratic transition is Tunisia at the moment. This article seeks to answer the following question: Why have we seen a different outcome in the various MENA countries in terms of democratic reforms? And under what conditions we see political reforms or authoritarian consolidation? Answering these questions, this paper studies the role of regime type in the democratization process in selected countries in the MENA that resemble the different existing political systems (monarchies, military regimes and republics): Egypt/Algeria (military regime), Morocco/Jordan (monarchy) and Tunisia/Lebanon (republic). It also studies the interaction between external actors’ competing strategies and the domestic players in those countries. The paper is based on primary and secondary sources in addition to semi-structured interviews conducted with political elites in the comparative cases and with political elites at the European Union's institutions during 2013-2016.