Whether the scarcity of renewable resources like arable land can be considered as a valid cause of armed conflict or not remains a fervently debated question in environmental security research. Systematic quantitative investigation of the causal connection between resource scarcity and conflict, so far, has exclusively focused on supply and demand induced scarcity, that is, on scarcity caused by ecological and demographic changes like land degradation, rainfall variations or population growth, which bring about a reduced per capita availability of resources. Yet, a close look at the case study literature reveals that such processes are unlikely to provoke armed conflict unless they have a profoundly detrimental impact on the social cohesion of affected populations. Among the different social consequences adverse demographic and ecological changes might have, a highly skewed distribution of resources seems particularly likely to breed violent conflict, especially if it matches demarcation lines between different social groups with a historically rooted perception of shared identity. As they result from exclusionary politics of resource appropriation, such horizontal inequalities are likely to breed grievances among disadvantaged communities, while the conflation of group affiliation with political power and the prospects to secure one’s livelihood facilitates intra-group cohesion and the collective use of violence against members of other communities. Inter-ethnic clashes around the 2007 Kenyan elections represent a paramount example of the brisance of such a conjuncture. Employing structural equation modelling techniques as well as historical analysis, this article demonstrates the highly destabilising effect of land scarcity and horizontal inequalities in the access to land on Kenyan society. Using a sample of 3,225 Kenyans employed in the agricultural sector, it confirms systematic discrepancies in experiencing the adverse effects of land scarcity between members of different ethnic communities prior to 2007. A short historical review of land distribution issues in post-independence Kenya complements this analysis. It clarifies that horizontal inequalities in the access to fertile land were the result of land grabbing and patrimonial politics of resource allocation, substantiating a strong feeling of relative deprivation among disadvantaged communities. This explains the susceptibility of Kenyan society to ethno-politically instigated mass violence in late 2007.
