Political Regimes and Generational Effects on the Support for the Czech Communist Party, 1990–2016

Since the early nineties it has been widely assumed that the (Czech) Communist Party of Bohemia and Moravia (KSČM) will eventually disappear, as communist party supporters who are unique in terms of their age would eventually die out. To the surprise of many commentators, there has been little evidence to support this ‘decline and disappearance’ thesis. This paper – among other things – argues that this will happen in a quite far future. Using age-period-cohort analysis this research will examine generational components of electoral support for the Czech Communist Party. A unique merged data-file of monthly surveys for the 1990 to 2016 period will be used for this task, as well as merged post-election surveys for the 1990-2013 period. The basic question focuses on whether it is possible to identify specific generations of strong KSČM supporters. Preliminary analysis suggests that there were two time points in the past that divide the Czech electorate into three generations of KSČM partisans. A generation with strong KSČM support was born before 1954 and socialized before the Warsaw Pact invasion of 1968. Within this cohort of voters about a third support the KSČM. In contrast, a generation of ‘moderate’ KSČM support was born between 1955 and 1975 and politically socialized before the Velvet revolution of 1989. Lastly, there is a democratic generation socialized after the fall communism who exhibit little or no attachment to this party. In addition to that, the paper differentiates KSČM voters into two groups: party identifiers and non-identifiers. The generational effects are much stronger among party identifiers and non-identifiers.