Nuclear Proliferation: The Risks of Prediction

The paper will survey the theoretical tools for predicting non/proliferation in international relations, including the role of the Nonproliferation Regime. It will distill relevant considerations for assessing proliferation scenarios in East Asia; this region provides a good laboratory to explore failed predictions from the past and the conditions for a possible transformation of the nuclear order. The final version of this paper will be included in the Oxford Handbook of International Security (in progress).