The Spread of Term Limit Manipulations in Sub-Saharan Africa: Learning through Exchange or by Example?

Authoritarian regimes in Sub-Saharan Africa have realized the removal of term limit regulations and justified these changes or violations of the constitution in remarkably similar ways. While previous studies suggest that opposition activists have learned from each other how to successfully protest against the manipulation of term limits, the literature has rarely analyzed the spread of regime strategies and discourses in this respect. Conceptually, this paper adds to the emerging research on authoritarian learning by differentiating ‘learning through exchange’ that requires interaction of the respective regimes from ‘learning by example’ that can occur without direct contact. Empirically, an inquiry into all instances of term limit manipulations in Sub-Saharan Africa between 1990 and 2015 reveals that incumbents have adapted their endeavors in response to past successes and failures on the continent without, however, directly collaborating. The case of Rwanda, where president Paul Kagame was granted an exception from the two-term limit in late 2015, then serves to reconstruct such a process of learning from regional examples in more detail. It is particularly insightful as the Rwandan process constitutes a ‘best of’ previous African rulers’ strategies.