Public Opinion, Support for Populism and the November 2015 Terrorist Attacks in France: An Empirical Analysis

Historically, populist demand or populist potential have been more present in some countries than in others. France is one of those countries that can be identified by its higher-than-average levels of populist demand, and this for a number of historical, institutional and philosophical reasons. Overall, the populist demand in France can be theorised around two primary indications. At its core, this populist demand seeks to halt ‘the corrupt elite’, while at the same time advance ‘the will of the people’. Based on this two-folded interpretation of populism, our study analyses demand-side populism and its most recent evolution (2013-2016) through the use of a unique French data set (Fractures françaises). We set out to examine French populist attitudes through three research questions. First, we analyse whether levels of populism are effectively high across the board and how we can explain them. While we find clear evidence of substantial levels of populism across France, we are also able to build a profile of the ‘French populist’: They tend to be better educated yet less politically interested, hold negative attitudes towards immigration, support a strong leader and perceive themselves as being rather lower class. Second, we examine the upward trend in populist attitudes and whether explanatory mechanisms change through time. While a number of mechanisms remain stable (e.g. attitudes towards immigration, strong leaders or trust in society), we can observe some interesting changes (e.g. class, gender, stances towards authority). Third, because we observe a more-than-gradual increase in populist attitudes between 2015 and 2016, we reflect on the potential impact of a number of ‘critical junctures’ between wave three (04/2015) and wave four (04/2016), most notably the terrorist attacks in November of 2015.