The Underlying Logics of Gazprom’s Export Strategy

The Russian state-controlled energy company Gazprom’s core export markets in EU are in change, challenging the old market model. Gazprom’s response to the changes includes increased contract flexibility and testing of new pricing mechanisms. While these measures may appear to be an inevitable adaptation, the way of reasoning of Gazprom´s decision-makers is not well known. Gazprom’s behavior is often assumed to result from “cold” calculation of consequences, either political or commercial. This paper explores the role of ideas in decision-making processes, shedding light on how influential players in Gazprom reason. There are indeed real conflicts of interest between Russia and the EU, but also differences in their respective perceptions of reality, and of how gas trade relations “should” be. This normative aspect may play a larger role in decision-making than is generally acknowledged.