Do criminal organizations use strategically violence for electoral purposes? This paper aims at analyzing the relation between criminal violence and subnational elections in Italy where four mafia-like criminal organizations operate. The empirical analysis is drawn from a unique panel data of monthly intimidation attacks reported by police forces in 105 Italian provinces from 1983 to 2003. Through a diff-in-diff design, the paper finds statistical evidence that as elections approach intimidation attacks increase in those provinces where mafia-like groups operate. Criminal violence especially increases when electoral results are more uncertain. The impact of this violence is addressed empirically in the paper assessing the effect to local public spending. We observe an increase in local public spending in those cities where more mafia-related violence is employed. These findings are consistent with a large case study literature documenting the interventions of criminal organizations into elections to capture politicians and to engage in rent-seeking.
