Linear Thinking in the Governance of Emerging Technologies: An Analysis of the Emerging Epistemic Community of the Fourth Industrial Revolution Technologies in South Korea

Epitomized by Vannevar Bush’s linear model, linear thinking on the relations of science and technology (S&T) viewing science to have sequential impacts on technology and society is prevalent among policymakers despite its descriptive inaccuracy. This study explores the mode of linear thinking among scientific experts leading the discourse and policymaking on the so-called fourth industrial revolution (4IR). It first examines a new policy window for South Korean researchers of information & communication technology (ICT) opened with the widely televised AlphaGo match in March 2016. Through in-depth interviews of long-time advocates of frontier ICT, we track how Korean ICT experts have taken advantage of the AlphaGo shock and pushed their research agenda with various opportunities (notably the government’s mid- and long-term ICT development planning process). These interviews supplemented with documentary analyses of key policymaking moments reveal an emerging community of experts sharing common causal beliefs and assumptions as to the socioeconomic and ethical consequences of 4IR technologies. We then examine the pattern and degree of linear thinking among the ICT experts, especially in recognizing and formulating technical and social risks of 4IR technologies such as job displacement, human identity crisis, and ethical dilemmas. This analysis utilizes the survey of about 100 ICT and non-ICT experts and 500 lay citizens on the potential risks of 4IR technologies. Our preliminary results show a significant degree of linear linking in identifying and pre-emptively addressing key risks of 4IR technologies is most prevalent among ICT experts, followed by non-ICT experts, and citizens. As such this study reveals the serious limitations of the emerging epistemic community of ICT experts in understanding the co-production of technological risks and devising better anticipatory governance of emerging 4IR technologies.