Long-term policy-making is little self-evident in many western societies. Due to the many uncertainties, long-term thinking is inherently difficult. Moreover, policy-makers usually prefer short-term interests that generate direct benefits. However, the acknowledgement of climate change threats will increasingly lead to long-term policy initiatives. A typical example thereof is the Dutch Delta Program. The aim of this program is to develop plans and visions for the future to protect the Netherlands against floods and have sufficient fresh water supply.
In this paper we aim to further enrich the understanding of policy-making processes. Long-term policy processes are usually not the main focus of policy theories, although recently concepts such as “uncertainties” and ‘adaptive management’ are gaining ground. By studying the Delta Program through a series of 16 interviews and a reflection workshop we have gained insight in the nature and challenges of long-term policy-making for water management.
Long-term policy-making is characterized by integrating different time scales during which policy makers attempt to reach a (changeable) vision. Long-term decisions can consist of large interventions to be implemented at some point in time, small steps throughout the intended period or even postponement. Note that the understanding of ‘long term’ is relatively subjective and domain-specific.
Developing and implementing long-term policies often suffers from a limited sense of urgency and uncertainties around effectiveness. In other words, major long-term policy challenges relate to knowledge availability, interaction of long-term and short-term interests, and lack of integration between actors and domains. We classify uncertainties in terms of substantive and process uncertainties, such as ‘perspectives of actors’, ‘the agenda’, ‘design of the policy arena’ and ‘power distribution’. The collaborative nature of the program across administrative and political levels contributes to its embedding in the policy arena.
