Combining the ACF with Feedback Effects of Policy-Induced Technological Change - A Longitudinal Case Study of German Energy Politics

The de-carbonization of the energy sector is key to avoid dangerous levels of climate change. Far from being a sole technological challenge, such an energy transition is encountering societal and political barriers. The ACF has proven to be a valuable framework for investigating such barriers to policy change in the energy-subsystem. For instance, ACF studies explain important endogenous aspects of energy-policymaking, such as policy-brokers. Others take into account the role of external subsystem events, such as nuclear disasters. However, we argue, existing ACF research underemphasizes the external context of policy subsystems, in particular feedback effects through policy-induced technological change. Yet, such feedback effects are central for tackling “super-wicked” policy problems like climate change. The paper addresses this research gap by asserting that combining the AFC with elements of recent literature on policy feedback can help better explain temporal dynamics of actor and belief coalitions in the energy-subsystem. We aim to combine (1) non-cognitive, external factors inherent in ACF with (2) feedback effects based on policy-induced technological change in the energy sector. Indeed, policy feedback literature is compatible with ACF, since both share the central assumption that significant changes in policy-subsystems require perturbations in socio-economic conditions and technology. The paper explores the validity of these claims with an empirical analysis of policy-induced technological feedback effects on the evolution of advocacy coalitions and beliefs in the German energy sub-system. Methodologically, the article identifies these dynamics based on Discourse Network Analysis (DNA) of German parliamentary speeches and newspaper articles from the 1980s to 2013. The paper answers the workshop’s call in two ways. Conceptually, it addresses aspects of point (vi) related to external events and dynamics. Methodologically, the paper is answering calls for longitudinal analyses of policy processes. It also aims at improving possibilities for comparative research using systematic methods (such as DNA).