Recent research has demonstrated that as mainstream parties converge on the left-right scale, voters are more likely to switch from supporting a mainstream party to a non-mainstream party in the next election as they seek out an alternative that better—and more clearly—represents their views. However, are voters likely to switch parties as parties’ positions converge on one of the most salient issues in European politics today—immigration? In this paper, we argue that as mainstream parties converge on the issue of immigration, voters are more likely to switch to an anti-immigration party in the next election to similarly find an alternative that better represents their views. We also argue that voters’ probability of switching is conditioned by whether voters perceive the immigration issue to be important and if they feel threatened by immigration. To test our theoretical expectations, we combine data from the Comparative Study of Electoral Systems and the Manifestos Project for nearly 100,000 vote choices of individual voters in 30 elections in 16 West and East European countries from 2001 until 2013. Our findings have important implications for understanding the increase in support of anti-immigration parties, the changing nature of party systems, and the increasing challenges of cabinet formation across Europe.
