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Aligning Theory, Method and Evidence in Civil War Research Using Mechanism-Based Approaches, Process-Tracing and Fieldwork

Conflict
Political Violence
Methods
Qualitative
War
Ethics
Nicholas Barker
University of Oxford
Nicholas Barker
University of Oxford

Abstract

The paper shows how qualitative research in general, and process-tracing combined with fieldwork in particular, can contribute to civil war research by bringing theory, methods and evidence into alignment. It outlines the assumptions and methodological implications of mechanism-based approaches that use the theory and process-tracing practice of causal mechanisms, and then shows how, in combination with a serious commitment to fieldwork, this approach can advance the study of civil wars. Researchers need to: (1) be more innovative with concept formation and ‘casing’ (and, by extension, with case-study research designs) in order to capture the processual character of conflict dynamics and guide data collection, especially regarding the spatiotemporal scope of cases; (2) theorise causal mechanisms that demonstrate ‘productive continuity’ in generating outcomes, and specify their observable implications and evidentiary signatures for testing; (3) redouble and refine data generation efforts in conflict-affected areas – that is, expend more ‘shoe leather’ in pursuit of good theories and empirical evidence. The benefits of this effort can be maximised by exploiting the advantages associated with fieldwork, not only for generating process-tracing evidence and acquiring deep, context-specific knowledge, but also as a means of improving a researcher’s ability to evaluate evidence, discriminate between competing explanations, and manage the iterative back and forth between theory and evidence. The paper concludes by discussing how to effectively and feasibly evaluate process-tracing evidence, i.e., how to judge the weight, utility, and admissibility of evidence, and the ethics of collecting and using it, in the context of studying violent conflict. The arguments are illustrated with exemplars from existing research and the author’s PhD fieldwork in Georgia, Abkhazia, Serbia, and Kosovo.