Black Diamond or Black Death: The United Kingdom’s, Germany’s and Poland’s Diverging Transition Pathways Towards a Future Without Coal Consumption

Climate change will require the European Union to end coal consumption. This paper investigates reasons for the diverging trends in coal used for electricity generation by analysing three representative case study countries, namely the UK, Germany and Poland. It aims to identify main hurdles and drivers of coal phase-outs on a country-specific level by applying a stakeholder analysis combined with the Triple Embeddedness Framework. Policy outcomes regarding coal consumption are deeply influenced by crucial stakeholder groups, namely, coal corporations, unions, environmental NGOs, civil society and the government. Although the UK has agreed on a coal phase-out by 2025, additional policies will be necessary to incentivise investments into low-carbon solutions. In Germany, the coal regime’s interests dominate political decisions and a reduction in coal consumption can only be reached when structural development for coal dependent regions is addressed. Poland, the most coal-dependent country, has no aim to transition away from coal. It will need to overcome resistance related to past negative experiences with coal sector restructuring programmes. The comparative case study approach revealed that the decline of the coal sector needs to be tackled directly, while alternatives for providing a stable energy supply and new job opportunities need to be fostered.