The Influence of Regionally Diffusing Protests on Perceptions Amongst Authoritarian Regime Elites During the Arab Uprisings

The (re)actions of authoritarian regimes under pressure have thus far been primarily investigated from a domestic perspective assuming isolated rational calculations on the side of the regime elites calling the shots. However, with increasing frequency of transnational –especially regionally diffusing– protest dynamics, researchers should bear in mind the regional context. It can influence perceptions of regime elites and thus their decisions. Regionally diffusing contestation constraints authoritarian decision-making through increased time pressure on decision-making and incomplete information but an also serve as an early warning system. Based on these assumptions this paper engages with the emerging literature on Authoritarian Learning and proposes a modified analytical framework that takes the bounded rationality of regime elites into account. Building on semi-structured interviews with political elites in Egypt and Morocco I develop an actor account based approach to assess the effects of transnational learning on authoritarian elite decision-making during critical junctures. Based on more than 50 elite interviews with government officials (former and current), party leaders, political consultants, journalists and academics in Morocco and Egypt, the gathered data allows an insight into how the regime elite’s perceptions are influenced by what they observe abroad and how this influenced the domestic decision-making process in 2011. The paper presents the main results of the interview data collected between 2013-2016 and determines the effects of regional diffusing protests on regime elites and their perceptions and reactions to protests in their own backyard.