The Influence of Beliefs: High Representative Federica Mogherini and the Ukraine Crises

Individual beliefs of state leaders do matter in foreign policy as shown in the field of Foreign Policy Analysis. This so far state-centred view needs to be complemented by how the beliefs of High Representative (HR) Federica Mogherini affect EU foreign policy. To reveal her beliefs, the cognitive operational code approach is applied, which is based on a quantitative content analysis of verbal material (a total of 120 speeches, remarks and addresses by Mogherini are to be analysed). A congruence analysis then provides a reproducible causal mechanism between Mogherini’s beliefs and her subsequent deeds in EU foreign policy – the so far “missing link” in scholarly works on the influence of the HR. Using the hybrid EU sanctions policy (i.e., involving both the intergovernmental and supranational sphere of the Union’s foreign policy) during the Ukraine crises (2014–2016) as a case study, I aim to demonstrate within which of the two spheres the influence of Mogherini’s beliefs is more substantial regarding the EU’s action towards the Ukraine. The extent to which the HR’s beliefs can have an influence is thereby affected by various constraints (e.g., EU state leaders, significance of the “double hat”). I argue that counter-intuitively, the influence of Mogherini’s beliefs on the intergovernmental sphere is more substantial: despite a narrow scope of action compared to the supranational sphere, she closely interacts with the member states being the primary actors of EU foreign policy.