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Candidate Perceptions of Each Other's Positions: Evidence from the 2012 US Congressional Elections

Elections
Political Competition
Political Psychology
Iulia Cioroianu
New York University
Iulia Cioroianu
New York University

Abstract

A new survey of the candidates competing in the 2012 U.S. Congressional elections shows that partisan perception bias is as common among politicians as it is among voters. Both Republican and Democratic candidates perceive their opponents as more extreme than they really are. The perceived positions of other relevant political actors are also affected by both the candidates' party affiliation and their own ideological placement. This is the first time a survey of candidates evaluates their perception of the opponent's position. The survey was conducted in October 2012 and asked US Congressional candidates to place themselves, as well as their opponent, the median voter in their district, the median legislator from their own party and the Republican and Democratic presidential candidates on a common Liberal-Conservative ideology scale. The data was combined with independent measures of median voter positions at the district level as well as incumbent ideology. Analysis of candidate electoral programs and discourses offered an independent measure of “real” positions. The results show that both Republican and Democratic candidates perceive their opponents as more extreme than the opponents declare themselves to be and than they really are. Under the assumption that candidates are interested in winning the elections and by focusing on pairs of candidates competing in the same district, I show that while some of this difference can be attributed to a candidate's incentives to portray the opponent as more extreme, a large part comes from a partisan perceptual bias, similar to that previously documented in the case of voters. I also find that candidates' perception of the position of the median voter in their district and the median legislator from their party is affected by their partisan affiliation and their own ideological placement.