Russian Power Versus the West’s Fading Power? – The Case of Kaliningrad

In the preparation of the EU’s eastern enlargement in 2004, Kaliningrad was a contentious topic on the agenda of EU-Russian diplomatic relations. Both Poland’s and Lithuania’s accessions to the EU and inclusion in the Schengen zone resulted in the encirclement of the Russian exclave by EU territory; thus, having a direct impact for citizens travelling to and from Kaliningrad. In an attempt to regulate this transit of people, the European Commission introduced a facilitated transit document (FTD), which was comparable to a visa. Members of the Russian political elite directed vociferous condemnations against the EU claiming that this introduction of the FTDs was an infringement of the right of the free movement of persons. More than a decade after this heated debate between the EU and Russia, Kaliningrad is not on the agenda of relations between Brussels and Moscow anymore. Instead Russia’s gradually intensifying military deployment in Kaliningrad has become a severe security concern for the West. NATO regards the Baltic States’ proximity to the deployment of missile defense systems in Kaliningrad as a threat for European security. Officials from the Alliance raised concerns about NATO’s ability to clearly delineate the circumstances for the necessity to invoke Article 5, which stipulates that an attack against a member state of the alliance will be understood as an attack against NATO and will consequentially be retaliated. Both Russia’s stationing of ballistic missiles in Kaliningrad and its retreat from nuclear disarmament agreements with the US are perceived as factors undermining security. Russia’s withdrawal from the Treaty of Conventional Armed Forces in Europe in March 2015 is a recent example of lacking ‘checks and balances’ in both the European and Transatlantic security architecture. This paper seeks to examine some of the ‘push and pull factors’ challenging the post-Cold War European security architecture stemming from Russia’s engagement in Kaliningrad between 2015 and 2017. Examining both Russia’s actions in Kaliningrad and the EU’s as well as the US’ response to it seeks to analyse the conflicting power dynamics at play to elucidate Russia’s and the West’s conflicting interest regarding the Kaliningrad oblast on the one hand and the nature of Russia’s power on the other hand. To this end, this paper employs Barnett’s and Duvall’s ‘taxonomy of power’ concept. In seeking to understand the nature of Russian power the application of this conceptual framework will contribute to a better understanding of the nature of the conflict regarding Kaliningrad and its implications for the European and Transatlantic security architecture. Unlike mainstream theoretical frameworks in International Relations which predominantly emphasise either the realist or liberal paradigm in seeking to explain the driving forces of interactions of states, Barnett’s and Duvall’s concept offers a more nuanced understanding of factors shaping actors’ relations with one another. This paper examines these facets of Russian power in its relations with Kaliningrad and its broader implications for European security.