A Matter of Political Sophistication? The Relationship Between Political Performance and Political Trust Reconsidered

Political trust establishes a cornerstone of any stable democratic system, as it enhances both the legitimacy and effectiveness of democratic governance. In recent years, however, scholars, politicians, and journalists alike have been concerned about a growing distrust of and disenchantment with politics among citizens of contemporary European democracies. As some observers have noted, it seems that a substantial number of citizens are increasingly dissatisfied with the performance of their political systems and the outcomes political institutions and authorities deliver. Others have even argued that feelings of distrust and dissatisfaction could nurture citizens’ susceptibility for populist sentiments or authoritarian movements. While the close relationship between the performance of political systems and political trust – both at the individual and aggregate level – belongs to one of the most established findings in research on political support, we still lack a clear understanding of the concrete nature of this relationship. More precisely, most existing research on this relationship neglects that the impact of performance (evaluations) on political trust depends on the level of citizens’ political sophistication, i.e. their particular set of skills and knowledge with regard to the “political world”. In this context, two different scenarios appear plausible: On the one hand, the impact of performance evaluations on political trust should be stronger for citizens with higher levels of political sophistication, as they have a more elaborated set of skills and knowledge regarding the political world and thus should be better able to assess and evaluate the performance of the political system – both positively and negatively. On the other hand, it can be argued that citizens with relatively low levels of political sophistication lack the more rational or cognitive component in their performance evaluations and therefore make use of more intense emotional, affective or ideological considerations when judging political institutions and authorities. Following this second assertion, the impact of performance evaluations on political trust should be stronger for citizens with lower levels of political sophistication – again in both positive and negative direction. We test these two competing hypotheses concerning a moderating role of political sophistication for the relationship between political performance and political trust using comparative data from the European Social Survey (ESS) and the European Election Studies (EES). In addition, we examine the context-dependency of the relationships found by taking into account measures and indicators for the objective performance of contemporary European democracies. In doing so, our empirical assessment not only provides valuable insights into the underlying nature of the well-established relationship between the performance of political systems and citizens’ political trust, but also offers much needed empirical evidence on the question of whether feelings of disenchantment and distrust are grounded in more rational and cognitive considerations of the politically sophisticated or rather establish a more affective attribute of the less politically sophisticated citizenry.