The Anatomy of the Arab Spring: An Analysis with a Typology of Revolutions

This article aims to develop a typology of revolutions based on the factors affiliated to the revolutionary process (mass demonstrations, the presence of ideology, revolutionary elites' role in the previous regime) as well as revolutionary outcomes (change in political, economic, social and religious institutions) and subsequently the three cases of forceful leadership changes in Tunisia, Egypt and Libya is analyzed to determine the revolutionary character of these uprisings. Based on this analysis, I find that the Libyan case is a ‘social revolution’; Tunisia have been experiencing a ‘refolution’; and what Egypt experiences is not a revolution of any kind but a simple leadership change. Another important finding is that despite earlier optimism, revolutions in the contemporary era should not be automatically confused with democratic and more inclusive regimes. The most revolutionary state, Libya, is at the same time the least democratic among these three cases whereas the Tunisian case which experiences a moderate level of revolutionary change is the most successful case in terms of democracy promotion.