Survival of the Fittest: What Future for Big Oil in the Transition to a Low Carbon Economy?

Current attempts by governments and international organisations to shift economic and political incentives underpinning global energy markets to achieve a low-carbon transition constitute a key consideration for global energy companies in formulating their future business strategies. This paper examines how different types of oil and gas companies are adapting to these changes that, in the worst-case scenario, constitute an existential threat to their business. Do strategies of publicly listed, Western companies differ from those of the state-owned companies in the emergency markets with which they compete, and if so why? Furthermore, is there a divide emerging between European and US energy companies, with the former becoming more pro-active in embracing a shift away from fossil fuels as envisioned by the UN's Sustainable Development Goals and the Paris Agreement and the latter more confident in the long-term viability of the fossil fuels? In addition to providing a better understanding of the challenges to achieving a low-carbon transition, these comparisons will contribute to debates surrounding the relative strengths and weaknesses of international and national oil companies (IOCs and NOCs), as well as the more fundamental debate about economic performance and competitiveness inherent in the Varieties of Capitalism literature.