Individual Campaign Strategies in a New Democracy: The Interplay Between a Single-Member District, Proportional Electoral System, Party Type and Party Popularity

After five electoral cycles under closed list PR, Romania has switched since 2008 to a mixed proportional electoral system in which all candidates are elected in SMDs: some directly by obtaining an absolute majority of votes in the SMD and others through the allocation of party votes at county and national level. The individual choice of campaign strategy at the December 2012 elections was likely to be affected not only by the electoral system and the particularities of the party organizations but also by the likely distribution of votes according to most opinion polls. First, the Social Liberal Union (USL) were expected to obtain a large share of vote and to win a high number of seats with a majority of votes in the SMDs. This increased the probability that few of their candidates would be allocated a seat in the redistribution stages, which created additional incentives for USL candidates to run a personal campaign to make sure they would not fall behind the 50% threshold. Second, the main opposition party, PDL, which had governed Romania for most of the legislative term (from December 2008 until April 2012) was hugely unpopular. This provided an incentive for their candidates to tone down party-centered messages as well as to differentiate from and ‘do better’ than other candidates of the party with whom they were likely to compete for a seat in the redistribution stage. Drawing on data from the Romanian Candidate Study, our models estimate the impact of institutional, organizational and attitudinal variables on campaign norm, constituency-related agenda, and independent campaigning. Studying campaign strategies and behaviour in the context of the Romanian multi-tiered electoral system allows for a quasi-experimental design, in which the effect of various electoral incentives can be observed, while simultaneously isolating other intervening factors that would affect cross-systems comparisons.