Changing Tides? Voting Behaviour in the 2014 European Parliament Elections and the Second-Order Election Model

European Parliament elections are the major feature of democratic processes in the European Union. In the past decades, these elections were largely fought over national issues and individual-level vote choice was mainly driven by so-called second-order considerations. In this study, I argue that the 2014 elections announced a major shift in voting behavior for three main reasons: First, these elections were the first after the peak of the sovereign debt and financial crisis. Second, European integration became starkly politicized and contentious manifesting itself through an increasingly Eurosceptic public. Third, the installment of lead candidates for the European Commission Presidency by the major European party families further increased the importance of the 2014 electoral outcome. These factors combined fundamentally altered the notion of “less being at stake” in EP elections and render a confirmation of the second-order election model rather unlikely. Postulating a very different electoral environment, I examine the claim of a crucial case closer and test the second-order model against competing explanations, such as positions on European integration and the importance of policy areas dealt with at the European level. Employing multi-level regression models, I show that second-order considerations still relate significantly to several patterns of electoral participation and vote switching. Yet, the extent, to which these factors shape individual-level voting decisions, is decisively limited by favoring more European integration, or attributing subjective importance to a policy area under EU competence. Macro-level explanations like the national electoral cycle are – in contrary to many previous studies – are far less crucial for voting behavior. This finding challenges several prevailing views on EP elections and strengthens arguments brought forward by proponents of non-second-order voting behavior. Furthermore, my study puts forward, why conceptual clarity and comprehensive means of analysis are of vital importance for understanding complex issues like vote choice.