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When Democracies Support Authoritarian Regimes: Tunisia and the Democratic Peace Theory Revisited

Democracy
Foreign Policy
International Relations
Transitional States
Policy Change
Bernhard Stahl
Universität Passau
Katharina McLarren
Universität Passau
Bernhard Stahl
Universität Passau

Abstract

Tunisia, the only survivor of the Arab Spring, successfully transitioned from an authoritarian regime to a democracy in a remarkably short time. Following the approach of the Democratic Peace Theory, one would expect this regime change to bring about a change in foreign policy as well – one which is more peaceful vis-à-vis other democracies, while more aggressive towards autocracies. At the same time, one would expect Tunisia’s liberal and illiberal partners to behave differently towards Tunisia. Tunisia thus features as a most likely case to compare policies and relations before and after regime change. At the same time, Tunisia poses a hard case for this theoretical approach, considering it equally serves as a perfect example of ‘autocratic peace’, considering its past (and present) good relations with other authoritarian regimes. What is particularly striking is the support democracies demonstrated towards authoritarian Tunisia up until the regime change. Equally as striking is the role Tunisia has assumed towards other authoritarian regimes since 2011. When analysing the Tunisian relationships with France and Germany respectively; Tunisia’s engagement in international organisations; as well as Tunisia’s reaction to the Syrian mass atrocities, we find subtle changes in line with the Democratic Peace Theory. However, we also propose future avenues of research regarding practices among (former) authoritarian regimes as well as cooperation between democracies and authoritarian regimes, thereby widening the scope of democracies’ foreign policy behaviour and the role of alter-expectations in the monadic variant of the Democratic Peace Theory.