The Green Menace: Russia's Energy Policies to Mitigate EU's Renewable Energy Transition

The EU's renewable energy transition may directly challenge Russia's regime, as the EU is its main oil, gas, and coal export market and Russia's state budget revenues mainly originate from energy exports. A RET has direct security consequences, as it negatively affects both military and social spending, may invoke technological backwardness, and jeopardize the current system of rent distribution amongst elite. To counter this threat, Russia's elite developed renewable energy support schemes of their own, and developed a renewable energy sector within the fold of existing traditional state-controlled energy companies. In order to explain these Russian energy policies, the theory of Neopatrimonialism is used, offering explanations of the EU's RET as a regime threat within three dimensions: control over energy assets, rent-seeking, and rent distribution. In order to apply this theoretical framework to answer the main research question: "how does Russia respond to the EU's RET?", this research draws upon primary energy data from Rosstat, Gazprom, and the ministry of finance, triangulated with elite explanations found in a self-compiled database of (+500) policy texts and speeches; and stakeholder interviews in Moscow. Preferred Panel 4: European external energy policy in times of the energy transition