Corruption and Emigration: Quasi-Experimental Evidence based on Global Survey Data

The link between corruption and emigration has received growing attention in the context of increased migration flows in recent years, yet the nature of the relationship remains unclear. We aim to strengthen causal claims underlying much of the study of corruption and migration. We use global survey data individual-level emigration intentions across 100 countries over 6 years, covering more than 370’000 respondents, including country level measures of corruption and individual perception of corruption in our models. To correct for potential estimation biases in OLS we propose to instrument corruption with the importance of cashless transactions in the economy. We find robust support for the mechanism that corruption causally increases emigration aspirations across countries. The results highlight the need to look beyond purely economic, security, or environmental drivers when assessing the root causes of migration.