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Who Votes for Whom? A Latent Class Analysis Approach to Partisan Preferences

Elections
Party Members
Comparative Perspective
Electoral Behaviour
Political Ideology
Voting Behaviour
Zhen Im
University of Helsinki
Hanna Wass
University of Helsinki
Zhen Im
University of Helsinki

Abstract

We identify different partisan clusters and their sizes. Recent studies suggest that indifferent and cross-pressured voters affect electoral turbulence. It is difficult to predict which parties indifferent voters would choose during elections. Cross-pressured voters are preferential to several parties, and could choose among their preferred parties during elections. Consequently, when one preferred party gains votes from such voters, another of their preferred party loses votes. For instance, growth for Green parties frequently occurs with decline for centre-left parties. Identifying partisan clusters – how many, which parties they prefer, and how sizable – is therefore relevant. We use data from a largescale Finnish survey and employ latent class analysis to explore these clusters. We find a quarter of Finnish respondents are indifferent to all parties. We also identify four groups of cross-pressured voters with distinct partisan preferences. Their partisan preferences support studies showing voters’ are electorally cross-pressured along economic and sociocultural issue dimensions.