How Voters Identify (New) Party Positions after Electoral Reform: Comparing Italy and Japan

An extensive literature has examined how changes in electoral rules, by expanding or limiting the range of viable ballot choices, impact party system configuration and voting behaviour. However, the related question of whether electoral reform exerts any influence on voters' perception of parties has received little scholarly attention. This inquiry is particularly relevant in cases where new parties enter the political arena, since by definition voters cannot rely on past history or retrospective assessments to estimate their policy positions. To explore the above question, we utilise longitudinal surveys from Italy and Japan, two frequently cited cases in studies of electoral reform. Specifically, we compare the extent to which voters in these two countries were able to correctly identify relative party positions along the ideological spectrum (according to expert judgments), and analyse factors which affect the accuracy of these placements. We test the hypotheses that older parties with established 'brand names' are more likely to be correctly located, and that older voters with longer exposure to political news are more capable of making accurate estimates. Furthermore, we discuss reasons for consistent party placements by Italian voters of all ages, in contrast to divergent trends between older and younger Japanese voters.