Elite Bandwagoning and Withdrawal: The Impact of Campaigns on Mobilising and Suppressing Support in Ireland's 2018 Abortion Referendum

The abortion referendum in Ireland 2018 is argued as a model of how to run a referendum campaign. Much of the focus is on the preceding citizens' assembly, but this ignores the years of campaigning done by pro-choice activists and that opinion had not changed in the years before the referendum. We argue that even though campaigns might not be very effective at shifting people’s underlying beliefs, they can persuade potential voters to shift opinion on more proximate objects in elections and referendums, including the decision to vote, but also vote choice. Using the 2018 referendum on the repeal of the 8th amendment, we argue that this is a case of the failure of one campaign to cause ‘elite withdrawal’. In fact the Yes side’s campaign, by remaining ‘on message’ caused elite ‘bandwagoning’ for Yes and withdrawal for the No side. We offer evidence that the campaign was most effective at mobilizing some groups and suppressing turnout in other groups, leading to a larger victory for the Repeal side than most expected.