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Making the Emigrant Votes Count: External Voting and its Impact on National Election

Elections
Latin America
Migration
Sebastián Umpierrez de Reguero
Spanish National Research Council (CSIC) - The Autonomous University of Madrid (UAM)
Sebastián Umpierrez de Reguero
Spanish National Research Council (CSIC) - The Autonomous University of Madrid (UAM)

Abstract

A majority of countries worldwide extend a provision of voting rights to their nonresident citizens. A growing number of normative or empirical contributions analyse the different patterns and varieties of emigrant enfranchisement. Prior literature has looked into several effects of external voting on political parties mobilisation, transnational campaigns and the spatiality of state authority. Yet, comparative studies on emigrant voter turnout are still rare, particularly in regions other than Europe. At methodological level, case studies are the most recurrent research practice to address emigrant voter turnout. Scholars have also somehow surprisingly overlooked how overseas votes impact national elections. To fill these gaps, first I describe external voting electoral results in 16 Latin American countries from 2002 to 2018. Second, I analyse the effect of institutional and political variables on voter turnout among non-resident Chileans, Colombians, Ecuadorians and Peruvians. I do that using a panel data set in which the overseas election results are nested to the different overseas districts (for Colombia and Ecuador) and to the countries of residence of these diasporas. Third, I assess to what extent their overseas votes impact national elections. The uniqueness of Latin American countries in terms of electoral rules and migrant policies contributes to strengthening theories on transnational voting rights and to the blooming literature on migrant enfranchisement, the political effects of external voting and special representation of emigrants.