The Dynamics of Electorate Party Switching – Populist Party Constituencies and Defection from the Mainstream

This paper investigates the dynamics of voter defection and party switching in Western Europe in the context of the growing popularity of populist political parties. Using data from the European Social Survey on previous voting behavior and present proximity to present political parties, it explores those segments of the electorate which (in contrast to past reported voting behavior) express a proximity to populist political parties, i.e. those voters expressing preference for political parties different from the ones they voted for previously. It is explored which voters of which mainstream parties defect for which types of populist parties (left-wing/right-wing). How do those voters that defect from the Center-Left to the far left and the greens compare to those that opt for the far right? Similar questions are posed with regards to defectors from conservative, Christian Democratic, and liberal parties. These different constituencies are compared and explored from socio-economic, policy preference, and value structure points of view. The study thus analyses both the proletarization of the right wing (with its welfare-chauvinistic appeals to the ‘losers of globalization’) as well as the gentrification of the left wing. As such, the paper not only contributes to our insights into the landscape of opinion dynamics but also upon the field of electoral competition. It is assumed that there is not one diffuse mass of discontent voters that vote for protest and populist parties, but that there are significant differences between the constituencies which are likely to take their vote to the far right or far left, based on socio-demographic factors, normative orientation, and welfare policy preferences. It is sought to identify the most vulnerable constituencies of various moderate, mainstream parties, the most likely destinations of such voters, and the implication such shifts may have for the future of landscape of redistributive politics.