The EU and the Alliance of 'the Excluded', Russia and Turkey

In the recent years, the European Union (EU) has been confronting the resurgence of two powerful countries in its neighbourhood, Russia and Turkey. These two countries have both similiarities and differences in their relationships with the EU and Turkey. Both of these countries have recently deepened their cooperation in Syria, defense matters, energy, trade and investment given the deterioration of their ties with the EU. A major objective of this study is to describe the status of the EU’s ties to these two resurgent powers in its neighbourhood and find out how its relations to these countries will develop in the next years. Turkey was declared an official EU candidate in 1999 and started accession talks with the EU in 2005. However, paradoxically, the relations started to sour from 2005 onwards with the rise of opposition to Turkey’s EU accession from a number of EU countries, particularly France, Germany, the Netherlands and Austria. Then, the relations have stumbled because of Turkey’s rejection of opening its ports and harbours to Greek Cypriot traffic with the result that 8 negotiation chapters have been frozen by the EU. Government’s harsh suppression of Gezi Park events in Turkey in 2013 has drawn the criticisim of EU officials. Lack of EU support to the Turkish government in the coup attempt on 15 July 2016 has further worsened the relations despite the cooperation in the Syrian refugee crisis. Since the coming into office of Vladimir Putin at the beginning of the 2000s, Russia has been seeking to restore its superpower status like in the Cold War era and has been increasingly rejecting the Brussels’ treatment of itself as a country subordinate to the EU. Russia’s annexation of Crimea in March 2014 has dramatically changed the nature of relationship between Russia and the EU, leading the latter strongly condemn and impose a series of sactions on the former. Apart from the Ukraine, the EU is also critical about Russian policy in Syria, cyber attacks and alleged violations of human rights. Inspite of all these, it is hard for the EU to completely break its relationship with such a large country, which is a significant actor in Eurasia and on which many EU countries are dependent for oil and natural gas. Both Russia and Turkey are important countries in the EU’s neighbourhood that the EU can not ignore and isolate easily because of the securiy, stability, economy and energy implications for itself. In this sense the questions this study ask are as follows: What kind of a relationship will the EU have with Turkey and Russia in the future? How can the EU deal with security threats emanating from these regions? How will the axis between Russia and Turkey evolve in the future? What implications could this cooperation between Russia and Turkey have for the EU? Will the EU continue to compartmentalise its ties with these countries for the sake of its long-term interests or prefer to ignore them?